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Stock Market Daily Discussion Thread for October 23rd - 27th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Welcome TSMF to the trading week of October 23rd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    T.B.A.
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    GE-Dip-Buying-Panic Sends Dow To 'Most Overbought' In 62 Years, Yield Curve Collapse Continues
    Always...

    As Bloomberg summarizes, the dollar rose, Treasuries sank and all three broad stock indexes are heading for a record close on bets a budget compromise will bring Washington closer to agreeing on Trump’s promise of tax reform. The dollar touched a three-month high and 10-year Treasury yields approached 2.4% while the Canadian dollar tumbled after inflation and retail sales missed estimates. Some clarity on a budget resolution, a good quarter of earnings and the anticipation of an announcement of the next Fed chair has led to market confidence. One stock clearly bucked the earnings trend; GE posted results before the bell, missing analysts’ estimates significantly and slashing its profit forecast. The stock erased losses after falling 7% in premarket trading.


    So - GE did this...

    [​IMG]

    GE now 1% above yesterday's close after abysmal earnings, cutting guidance by 30% and “horrible cash flow”

    And The Dow did this...

    [​IMG]



    Which pushes it to the most overbought (based on RSI) since July 1955...

    [​IMG]


    Trending Articles


    Coverup Questions Emerge Over Vegas Security Guard's…
    Following numerous questions remain unanswered about Mandalay Bay shooting hero Jesus Campos' timeline and perhaps…


    The Dow has not been near 'oversold' since Jan 2015...

    [​IMG]



    Another perfect week (5 up days) for the S&P 500 (making 4 in 2017, compared to 1 in 2016, 2 in '14, 2 in '13, 2 in '12, and 2 in '11)

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    VIX ended back below 10 (after briefly spiking above 11.6 yesterday)...

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    and then this happened right at the close...

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    Homebuilders soared today... due to fun-durr-mentals...

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    Bank stocks underperformed today - but still have a long way top go to catch down to the crash in the yield curve..

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    Uglyish week for FANG stocks and AAPL ended red...

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    TSLA Tanked Today...

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    Following last night's budget vote, tax-hope picked up again from recent lows...

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    Yields are higher on the day (and week) with the short-end continuing to underperform...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve continued to collapse this week - lowest weekly close for 5s30s since Nov 2007

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    Copper/Gold is at its highest in 3 years suggesting bond yields have a lot further to rise...

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    The Dollar Index soared today after last night's budget vote - this is the best day for the dollar in 9 months... after bouncing perfectly off the unchanged for the week level...

    [​IMG]

    The Dollar is up 5 of the 6 weeks - highest weekly close in 3 months



    Yen and Loonie (retail sales weakness) were the biggest losers this week sending the green back higher...

    [​IMG]



    Dollar strength weighed on precious metals with copper best on the week and WTI managing to limp into the green for the week today...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, Bitcoin soared today (on Zimbabwe panic) above $6000 for the first time ever...

    [​IMG]



    Now bigger than Goldman Sachs...

    [​IMG]



    So who is right?

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    This past week, the Dow crested 23000 sending the networks into a “tizzy.” It took about 5-minutes of crossing that magical “round number,” before questions raised of how long before the markets cross 24,000, and 25,000.

    The chart below shows the 1000-point milestones of the Dow going back to 2009. After a long break between 18,000 and 19,000 in 2015 through the election in 2016, the Dow has surged higher ticking off 4-more milestones in less than a year.

    [​IMG]


    As I have shown previously, these late stage “melt-ups” are not uncommon. In fact, as shown below, it is something witnessed prior to every market peak previously.

    [​IMG]

    As I stated just recently:



    “This past weekend, I discussed what appears to be the markets ongoing melt-up toward its inevitable conclusion. Of course, that move is supported by the last of the ‘holdouts’ that finally capitulate and take the plunge back into a market that ‘can seemingly never go down.’ But therein lies the danger.



    ‘However, it should be noted that despite the ‘hope’ of fiscal support for the markets, longer-term conditions are currently present that have led to rather sharp market reversions in the past. Regardless, the market is currently ignoring such realities as the belief ‘this time is different’ has become overwhelming pervasive.’”

    With volatility crushed, and record short positions on the VIX, there will likely be an event at some point that leads to a massive reversal in the assessment of “risk” and an unwinding of the market.

    [​IMG]


    However, such is not the case currently as even “small dips” are met with eager buyers which continues to reinforce the very dangerous lack of fear.

    With more ETF’s currently available to investors than there are stocks to fill them, it is quite likely the demand ramp for ETF’s will continue to push the Dow higher into the end of the year.

    Dow 24,000 by Christmas?

    Don’t be surprised if it happens.

    Just remember, all market melt-ups end just when things look their brightest.

    Here’s your reading list to for the weekend.

    Trump, Economy & Fed
    Markets
    Research / Interesting Reads


    “A bear market returns capital to those who it rightly belongs to.Ian McAvity
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-
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    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Does Dow 23,000 Mean Anything?
    Posted by lplresearch

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) closed above 23,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, marking the fourth 1,000-point milestone cleared so far in 2017.

    To put that into perspective, no other year has cleared more than two 1,000-point intervals. Of course, the percentage increase needed to reach each subsequent interval gets smaller; still, this is yet another way of showing how rare and strong 2017 has been.

    As the chart below shows, it took only 54 trading days for the Dow to go from 22,000 to 23,000—one of the quickest 1,000-point jumps ever.

    [​IMG]

    Here’s a look at some of the Dow’s major big milestone levels:

    • The Dow first closed above 100 in January 1906, but it traded consistently below this level until 1924 amid the 1920’s bull market. After the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed, the Dow traded beneath 100 until May 26, 1942—some 36 years from the first time it closed above this level.
    • The Dow first reached 1,000 on an intraday basis on January 18, 1966. However, it didn’t officially close above this level until November 14, 1972—nearly seven years later. Shortly after that, it moved back below 1,000 and didn’t break back above it for another 10 years.
    • The Dow first closed above 10,000 in early 1999, but the bursting of the dot-com bubble a year later pushed it back below that mark, which it failed to recapture until the summer of 2010, nearly 11 years later.
    So what tends to happen after big round milestones? Do these big 1,000 levels slow down rallies? History suggests that there could be a pause, but the subsequent returns a year later have been above average, which makes sense as above-average returns are most often seen during bull markets.

    [​IMG]

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Besides being a big number, 23,000 really isn’t any more special than 22,999. Still, we sometimes like to use these milestones as a chance to reflect and take a closer look at how investors’ portfolios are positioned. In the end, it is important to remember that fundamentals, technicals and valuations have always and will continue to drive equity gains over the long term – not big round numbers.”

    Small caps not participating in October rally
    [​IMG]
    As of today’s close, the market is just past the half-way point in October. DJIA has been the star of the month, up 2.64% already, comfortably above its average full-month of October performance of 2% over the last 21 years. NASDAQ is second best, up 1.97% nearly matching its full-month performance of 2.44%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are up 1.59% and 1.56% respectively. However the Russell 2000 Small-cap index has been headed lower since the fourth trading day of October. This small-cap trend is a divergence from the typical October pattern seen above. All five indexes typically rally in unison in October, just at different magnitudes. The last time Russell 2000 fell behind was in late July. Shortly thereafter DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ also faded.

    Trouble brewing in advance/decline lines?
    [​IMG]
    DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all closed at new all-time highs yet again today. S&P 500 and NASDAQ just barely made it. Russell 2000 came up short. This accomplishment by the major indexes is masking a potentially ominous sign.

    In the chart below, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all appear in the top pane while their corresponding advance/decline (a/d) line charts appear in the lower four panes. S&P 500 and NYSE a/d lines have been steadily trending higher since mid-August and appear to still be headed in that direction. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 a/d lines appear to have peaked earlier this month and have begun to move lower. This is of potential concern because fewer and fewer NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks are participating in the rally and generally what the majority of stocks do, eventually the index will do.

    A similar condition existed back in mid to late-July. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 a/d lines turned lower and shortly thereafter NYSE and S&P 500 a/d lines turned. NASDAQ then slipped 3.3% from late-July to mid-August while Russell 2000 dropped 6.4% over the same time period. DJIA and S&P 500 saw milder retreats of 2% and 2.2% respectively from August 7 to 18.
    [​IMG]
    The Hits Keep on Coming For the S&P 500
    Oct 20, 2017

    Here are some mind-blowing figures for you. In the 15 trading days since the start of October, the S&P 500 is on pace to close at a record high for the 10th time. Further, if the S&P 500 finishes up on the day Friday, it will be the 19th time that the index has closed at a record high since the start of September; a period covering 35 trading days. Keep in mind when reading these figures that all of these record highs have come at a time of year when stocks are typically at their weakest.

    With all of these new highs piling up, 2017 is making a run for the record books in terms of the most record closing highs for a given year. Already, 2017 is tied for the fifth most closing highs on record (dating back to 1929), and provided we don’t see any major pullbacks, with two months left in the year, there’s the potential for more. For example, if the rest of the year goes along at the same pace as the first ten months (a big if given that new highs tend to come in bunches), 2017 is on pace to see 61 record closing highs for the S&P 500. That would rank as the third most for any given year behind only 1995 (77) and 1964 (65). Not only were both of those years good for bulls, but the years that followed them were also positive with a gain of 9.1% in 1965 and 20.3% in 1996. With 47 trading days left in 2017, surpassing the record of 77 back in 1995 would be an extremely tall task, but a move into the third spot is certainly possible.

    [​IMG]
    Bespoke’s S&P 500 Sector Weightings Report — October 2017
    Oct 20, 2017

    S&P 500 sector weightings are important to monitor. Over the years when weightings have gotten extremely lopsided for one or two sectors, it hasn’t ended well. Below is a table showing S&P 500 sector weightings from the mid-1990s through 2012. In the early 1990s before the Dot Com bubble, the US economy was much more evenly weighted between manufacturing sectors and service sectors. Sector weightings were bunched together between 6% and 14% across the board. In 1990, Tech was tied for the smallest sector of the market at 6.3%, while Industrials was the largest at 14.7%. The spread between the largest and smallest sectors back then was just over 8 percentage points.

    The Dot Com bubble completely blew up the balanced economy, and looking back you can clearly see how lopsided things had become. Once the Tech bubble burst, it was the Financial sector that began its charge towards dominance. The Financial sector’s sole purpose is to service the economy, so in our view you never want to see the Financial sector make up the largest portion of the economy. That was the case from 2002 to 2007, though, and we all know how that ended.

    [​IMG]

    Explaining the New Highs in Three Charts
    Posted by lplresearch

    Friday saw the Nasdaq close at a new high, while the Dow, and S&P 500 Index made new intraday highs but sold off late to just miss new closing highs. Of course, we’ve been seeing a lot of new highs this year (not that we’re complaining) as equity markets continue to climb higher with the number of new highs posted by the three major indexes in 2017 being among the most ever.

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “It is important to remember that new highs tend to happen in clusters that can last decades, but in between you can have years without new highs. Recalling this can be one clue that this bull market may not be as old as many think.”

    First up, let’s take a look at the S&P 500:

    [​IMG]

    The Dow has been around since 1896, and the 48 new highs it notched this year has only been surpassed 7 times; though 22 more new highs are needed to break the all-time record set in 1995.

    [​IMG]

    Last, the Nasdaq 100 has made 60 new highs so far this year, meaning the all-time record of 62 new highs seen in 1999 may very likely fall.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 10.23.17 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 10.23.17 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 10.24.17 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 10.24.17 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 10.25.17 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 10.25.17 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 10.26.17 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 10.26.17 After Market Close:
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    Friday 10.27.17 Before Market Open:
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    Friday 10.27.17 After Market Close:
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the current pullback/correction levels for the major indices as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 10.20.17
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.22.17 - Looking For Clues
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    TSMFers come join us on our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-
    In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-
    We also have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty awesome to see all of you join us and participate on these.

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Here are the most notable earnings releases due out for this upcoming week ahead:
    ($AMD $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $V $BA $INTC $MCD $CAT $HAL $CMG $STX $LMT $T $HAS $GM $F $BIDU $TWTR $GILD $CELG)
    [​IMG]

    Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $13.81
    [​IMG]Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $1.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 15.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $12.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 17,946 contracts of the $13.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Amazon.com, Inc. $982.91
    [​IMG]Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 26, 2017. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $41.97 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 103.85% with revenue increasing by 28.29%. Short interest has increased by 25.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.1% above its 200 day moving average of $926.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,418 contracts of the $980.00 put expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Alphabet, Inc. -
    [​IMG]Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $8.39 per share on revenue of $21.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $8.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.20% with revenue decreasing by 2.28%. Short interest has increased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.7% above its 200 day moving average of $916.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 16, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,176 contracts of the $1,000.00 call expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Microsoft Corp. $78.81
    [​IMG]Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, October 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $23.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.95% with revenue increasing by 15.34%. Short interest has increased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.0% above its 200 day moving average of $69.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 5, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,781 contracts of the $80.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Visa Inc $107.55
    [​IMG]Visa Inc (V) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, October 25, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.86 per share on revenue of $4.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.88 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.26% with revenue increasing by 8.43%. Short interest has decreased by 17.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.1% above its 200 day moving average of $94.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 2, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,239 contracts of the $105.00 put expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 2.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Boeing Co. $264.75
    [​IMG]Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 25, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.65 per share on revenue of $24.06 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 24.50% with revenue increasing by 0.68%. Short interest has decreased by 25.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.6% above its 200 day moving average of $201.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 16, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,746 contracts of the $255.00 put expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Intel Corp. $40.43
    [​IMG]Intel Corp. (INTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 26, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.80 per share on revenue of $15.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.75 to $0.85 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue decreasing by 0.43%. Short interest has increased by 23.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.9% above its 200 day moving average of $36.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 11, 2017 there was some notable buying of 20,473 contracts of the $41.00 call expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    McDonalds Corp. $166.30
    [​IMG]McDonalds Corp. (MCD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.75 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.02% with revenue decreasing by 11.27%. The stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.9% above its 200 day moving average of $143.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 16, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,100 contracts of the $105.00 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Caterpillar, Inc. $131.36
    [​IMG]Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.22 per share on revenue of $10.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.64% with revenue increasing by 15.83%. Short interest has decreased by 25.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.0% above its 200 day moving average of $105.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,913 contracts of the $95.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Halliburton Co $43.33
    [​IMG]Halliburton Co (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, October 23, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.40 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3,700.00% with revenue increasing by 38.27%. Short interest has decreased by 6.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.0% below its 200 day moving average of $47.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 9,266 contracts of the $47.50 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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  12. bigbear0083

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    Here it Comes: The Longest Streak Ever Without a 3% Correction
    Posted by lplresearch

    2017 continues to break records, as the S&P 500 Index makes new highs amid historically low volatility:
    • The index has now gone 33 consecutive sessions without a 0.5% daily decline, which is the longest streak since 1995.
    • The index’s average daily change on an absolute basis so far this year has been only 0.30%, the smallest since 1965.
    • The index has closed lower 1% or more only four times—the fewest for a full year since 1964.
    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “I feel like a broken record, but so many times when I’m talking about 2017, I usually say ‘the last time since 1964, 1965, or 1995 when making comparisons to 2017. Those three years are widely considered the least volatile years ever, and 2017 is right there with them trying to make the medal stand.”

    One other amazing streak may take place at Monday’s close: The S&P 500, should it return at least -2.99%, will officially have gone 242 trading days (about 11.5 months) without a 3% correction, topping the record of 241 days set in 1995. If we jinx it and the S&P 500 falls 3%, we apologize … but the last time the S&P 500 closed down more than 3% the day after making a new all-time high was in November 1991, and the index has made 474 new highs since then without a 3% drop the following day.

    [​IMG]

    What can we say about 2017 that hasn’t already been said? What we’ve seen so far this year is like nothing we’ve seen for decades. Just remember that markets aren’t always this calm; and a perfectly normal correction of 3–5% could happen at any time, if for no other reason than it has been more than 11 months since the last 3% correction. Overall, the global economy continues to hum along thanks in part to strong earnings, and we aren’t seeing the excesses usually seen at previous peaks, which supports higher equity prices in 2018 and suggests that the odds of a recession are low. However, as the economic cycle continues to age, we expect volatility to get up off the mat and make a comeback.
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 Active Member

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    We are running out of time for a 3% pullback this year :p Just a little bit over 2 months left and the market doesn’t tend to make some big moves end of December. I agree with the article that volatility will make a comeback next year, I can’t see we have such a calm year again next year :p
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 Active Member

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    Well we are having a little bit of a pullback here :eek:
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    got my uncle over so my time will be pretty much limited this week, but just checking in to see what i missed now ... kind of an interesting reversal off the earlier morning ATHs today ... wonder if we'll see any continuation of this into tomorrow and this week or if this will be another BTFD to new highs again o_O
     
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 Active Member

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    Cy, thanks for getting this thread up and running the contests despite you will be busy this week :)

    It would be nice to see some kind of continuation tomorrow, but recently the market just bounced after some slight pullback, hopefully it will be a little different this time :D
     
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Administrator
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    Would Higher Volatility Mean a Bear Market?
    Posted by lplresearch

    We’ve shown many ways over the past few months how 2017 has been among the least volatile years in history. Well, here’s another way. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “In the end, we judge how volatile a year is by the average size of the daily changes; and wouldn’t you know it, only 1964 saw a smaller average change per day than what we’ve seen year to date.”

    The absolute value of the average daily change for the S&P 500 Index has been only 0.30% so far in 2017, which is second only to the 0.26% seen in 1964. It is worth noting the mid-60s saw three consecutive years of low daily ranges.

    [​IMG]

    What could it all mean? First things first, higher volatility will come. It has no other way to go, but that isn’t always a bad thing. Remember, the last time we saw a market environment like this-in 1995- volatility increased dramatically over the subsequent four years, but that period also saw the S&P 500 double. The huge economic and bull market boom of the mid-to-late ‘50s also followed historic calm, though volatility increased more modestly during that period.

    The bottom line is that this is a very small sample size, but by no means does it suggest we should assume a bear market could spring into effect once volatility comes back. As long as economic growth sustains current levels and earnings remain strong, we see very little chance of a recession within the next 12 months and expect the equity bull market to continue in 2018.
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 Active Member

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    Wow impressive day for MMM and CAT :eek:
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 Active Member

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    If they get tax reform done we could enjoy some kind of honeymoon period for the market for part of next year, but eventually earnings and economic growth would need to show up to keep this market going higher especially if interest rates begin to rise. Anyway, next year should be a lot more interesting than this year :D
     

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